April 2026 marked a critical transition period for the global cashew industry, as the market gradually moved away from the correction phase seen in the first quarter toward a more stable and cautiously recovering structure.
Following a period of declining prices and reduced buyer activity in Q1, April provided early indications of market stabilization, improving demand signals and a shift in buyer behavior, setting the foundation for potential upward movement in Q2/2026.
📊 Price Dynamics – From Volatility to Stability
Throughout April, cashew kernel prices in Vietnam demonstrated a clear reduction in volatility, with most major grades stabilizing within a narrow range.
FOB Ho Chi Minh levels recorded toward the end of the month show:
White kernels remained relatively steady, with premium grades holding firm, while mid-range grades showed slight upward adjustments. Roasted cashew products followed a similar pattern, with marginal increases in higher-grade segments driven by improving demand.
This pricing behavior indicates that the market has likely found a short-term equilibrium, where supply and demand are temporarily balanced.
Importantly, there were no significant price drops recorded during April, suggesting that the downside risk has diminished compared to Q1.
📈 Supply Conditions – Balanced but Structurally Tight
On the supply side, Vietnam’s cashew processing sector maintained stable operations throughout the month.
Factories continued to operate at consistent capacity levels, supported by steady raw material inflows. However, market participants noted that raw cashew availability did not expand significantly, limiting the possibility of excess supply entering the system.
This resulted in a supply environment that can be described as:
• operationally stable
• not oversupplied
• gradually tightening in specific segments
Such conditions typically act as a supporting factor for price stability and future upward movement.
🌍 Demand Recovery – Early but Measurable
Demand patterns in April showed clear improvement compared to the previous quarter.
European buyers, who had largely reduced inventory during Q1, began re-entering the market with renewed purchasing activity. The United States market, while still cautious, recorded a gradual increase in inquiries, particularly for standard grades used in retail distribution.
At the same time, the Middle East continued to demonstrate strong and consistent demand, especially for roasted and flavored cashew products, reflecting stable consumption trends in that region.
Overall, while demand has not fully recovered to peak levels, the direction is clearly positive, marking a transition from contraction to early-stage recovery.
🚢 Trade Activity – Shift in Buyer Behavior
One of the most notable developments in April was the change in buyer behavior.
Market participants reported:
• increased frequency of price inquiries
• shorter negotiation cycles
• higher willingness to discuss forward contracts
This shift suggests that buyers are moving away from a wait-and-see approach and beginning to actively secure supply positions.
Historically, such behavioral changes have often preceded price increases, as market confidence begins to return.
💰 Cost Environment – Neutral to Supportive
Key cost factors remained relatively stable during April.
Freight rates showed no major fluctuations, and logistics conditions continued to normalize compared to previous periods of disruption. Currency movements were present but did not create significant pressure on export pricing.
Processing costs remained largely unchanged, allowing suppliers to maintain stable pricing without the need for aggressive adjustments.
This cost environment contributed to the overall stability observed in the market.
📊 Market Positioning – End of April Assessment
By the end of April 2026, the global cashew market can be characterized as being in a transitional phase.
The key indicators are as follows:
• prices have stabilized after prior correction
• supply remains balanced with limited expansion
• demand is gradually recovering
• buyer engagement is increasing
Taken together, these signals point to a market that is exiting the correction phase and entering the early stages of a recovery cycle.
🔮 Outlook for Q2/2026 – Gradual Upward Pressure
Looking ahead to May and June, the market is expected to experience moderate upward pressure driven by:
• continued demand recovery in EU and US markets
• sustained consumption in the Middle East
• limited growth in raw material supply
• increasing buyer participation
However, the expected trend is likely to be gradual rather than abrupt, with price increases occurring in controlled increments rather than sharp spikes.
This suggests a market environment where:
• supply remains available, but tightening
• prices trend upward slowly
• competition for key grades intensifies over time
🧠 Strategic Implications for Importers
For importers and distributors, the April market conditions highlight an important decision window.
With prices stabilizing and demand beginning to recover, buyers face a strategic choice between:
• securing supply early at current levels
• or delaying purchases in anticipation of further price changes
Given current signals, many experienced buyers are adopting a balanced approach by:
• locking partial volumes
• prioritizing core grades
• maintaining flexibility for future adjustments
This strategy allows buyers to manage risk while maintaining supply security.
🚀 SVC Market Perspective
From SVC’s perspective, April confirms that the market has reached a turning point.
The stabilization of prices, combined with improving demand signals and increased buyer activity, indicates that the market is transitioning into a more active phase.
SVC continues to support partners by providing:
• transparent and updated price information
• stable and reliable supply
• flexible OEM and export solutions
This approach enables buyers to make informed decisions based on real-time market developments.
📧 Contact for Market Updates and Supply
📩 thanh@svc.vn
📱 (+84) 909 432 477
For detailed quotations, samples and updated market insights.