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2025 has emerged as one of the most turbulent years for Vietnam’s cashew industry. As the world’s leading exporter of cashew kernels, Vietnam is now grappling with a combination of raw material shortages, input cost hikes, trade barriers, and intensifying global competition. These forces are pushing the industry into a period of sharp filtering — where only the most adaptive and strategic enterprises will survive.

🔍 Declining Yields and Domestic Raw Material Shortages

According to global agriculture analysts, Vietnam’s cashew yields may decline by 10–15% in 2025 due to abnormal weather conditions, delayed flowering, and irregular rainfall in key growing regions such as Binh Phuoc, Dak Lak, and Gia Lai.

At the same time, the domestic raw material supply continues to shrink as more farmers switch to higher-value crops like durian. As a result, the country’s dependency on imported raw cashew nuts (RCN) increases sharply. In 2024 alone, Vietnam imported nearly 1.9 million metric tons of RCN, valued at approximately USD 2.3 billion, mostly from Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria.

💸 Rising Input Costs vs. Stagnant Export Prices

While RCN import prices have risen due to tight global supply and high freight rates, kernel export prices have not kept pace. This widening gap is placing immense pressure on the profit margins of Vietnamese processors.

Key contributing factors include:

• Increased competition from Indian and Chinese buyers
• Port congestion and longer shipping times from West Africa
• Global cashew buyers reducing purchases or delaying payments due to high inventory levels carried over from 2023–2024

⚠️ Tariff Barriers in the U.S. Market

A significant blow in 2025 is the U.S. government’s decision to impose a 10% import tariff on Vietnamese cashews beginning in April. Industry analysts warn that this rate could escalate up to 46% if no bilateral agreement is reached by Q3.

The impact has been immediate. Many Vietnamese factories have sharply cut back their RCN purchases to avoid inventory risks. Imports from Ivory Coast have dropped dramatically from 700–800,000 tons annually to barely over 200,000 tons in Q1/2025.

📉 Fluctuating Export Markets

Data from Vietnam Customs and VINACAS indicates:

• Exports to the U.S. fell by 14.5% in volume
• Exports to China declined 25.6% in volume and 16% in value
• Meanwhile, positive signals emerged from smaller markets like the Netherlands (up 43.2%) and Japan (up nearly 30%)

Despite these gains, they have not offset the losses from major traditional markets.

🥇 Rising Competition from Africa

Ivory Coast — the world’s largest RCN producer — is aggressively investing in local processing and is expected to raise its output to 1.3 million metric tons in 2025. The country is also implementing policies to restrict raw exports in favor of value-added kernels, directly competing with Vietnamese processors.

📌 Conclusion: Urgent Industry Restructuring Needed

The difficulties of 2025 are not just temporary disruptions. They are warning signs of a structural shift in the global cashew industry. For Vietnam to maintain its leading position, companies must quickly:

• Diversify sourcing and export markets
• Invest in deeper processing, OEM/private label packaging, and branded retail
• Enhance traceability, certifications, and automation
• Control logistics and operational costs through smart procurement and strategic partnerships

Enterprises that master these elements will not only survive this turbulent phase but emerge as dominant players in a new era of global cashew trade.

📧 Contact: thanh@svc.vn

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Website: https://svc.vn