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As Vietnam prepares for the 2026 processing cycle, global attention turns to West Africa—the world’s largest producer of raw cashew nuts (RCN). Early indicators suggest a season shaped by climate impacts, shifting farmer behavior, and evolving export policies across Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Ghana.

Given that Vietnam imports more than 60% of the RCN used for domestic processing, understanding these early signals is essential for accurate price planning and capacity allocation.

🌍 1. Côte d’Ivoire – Stable Production, Tight Quality Control Expected

Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest RCN producer, is forecast to maintain strong crop volume in 2026.

Key market signals include:

• Stable yield but smaller nut count variations due to weather fluctuations
• Government tightening export procedures to reduce informal cross-border movements
• Expectation of more competitive RCN offers early in the season
• Strong interest from Vietnam for early contracts

Ivory Coast’s improved post-harvest handling could increase outturn consistency, benefiting large processors.

🇳🇬 2. Nigeria – Weather-Driven Variability and Rising Domestic Competition

Nigeria’s 2026 crop outlook remains mixed.

Key observations:

• Rainfall irregularities may affect kernel recovery rates
• Local processors increasingly compete with exporters for raw material
• Nut count expected to fluctuate wider than 2025
• Prices may open softer but firm once demand rises

Vietnamese importers will monitor moisture control and outturn values closely before committing large volumes.

🇬🇭 3. Ghana – Smaller Crop but Better Quality Prospects

Ghana’s RCN output is expected to remain moderate but with improved quality parameters compared to neighboring regions.

Buyer expectations:

• Higher KOR (kernel outturn ratio)
• Stronger interest from premium processors
• Potential early-season price firmness

Ghana’s premium positioning may influence Vietnam’s sourcing strategy for high-end kernels.

📦 4. How West Africa’s Crop Affects Vietnam’s Processing Capacity

Vietnam’s processing industry is highly sensitive to RCN volume and quality. Early signals suggest:

• Adequate supply for continuous processing in Q2–Q3/2026
• Possibility of price stability if major African crops perform as forecast
• Improved outturn levels reducing processing losses
• More active competition among Vietnamese buyers for high-quality RCN

Vietnam’s ability to maintain global export leadership will depend heavily on timely contract execution with West African suppliers.

📈 5. RCN Price Outlook – Early 2026 Indications

While official opening prices are still weeks away, buyers anticipate:

• Mildly stronger opening compared to early 2025
• Higher prices for premium lots (KOR > 50)
• Increased differentiation between origins
• Stronger demand from Vietnam, India, and emerging processors in Asia

The combination of stable supply and expanding processing capacity may support balanced price levels.

🔍 6. What Importers Should Prepare For

Global cashew importers and processors should anticipate:

• Earlier contract negotiations due to tighter quality demand
• Greater need for on-ground inspection and QC verification
• Closer monitoring of African port logistics and export schedules
• Potential shipping delays caused by regional infrastructure challenges

For Vietnam, securing early-season RCN will be critical to maintaining processing continuity for WW240, WW320, and LP production.

📌 Conclusion

The 2026 RCN outlook shows promising supply from West Africa, though quality and weather-related variability remain key factors. For Vietnam—the global cashew processing hub—the season’s success will depend on proactive sourcing, transparent quality assessment, and long-term partnerships with African suppliers.

📧 Contact for OEM & Export Coordination: thanh@svc.vn

📱 WhatsApp: (+84) 909 432 477

🌍 Think Cashew Vietnam, Think SVC.