Templates Builder - Single Service

The cashew market outlook 2026 began with a cautious and stabilizing phase in Q1, following the volatility of late 2025. As the global market transitions into Q2/2026, early signals from supply regions, pricing trends, and buyer behavior are shaping a more structured and predictable trading environment.

For importers and distributors, understanding Q1 performance is essential to anticipate price movement and sourcing strategy in Q2.

Vietnam continues to act as the global pricing benchmark, reflecting real-time supply-demand balance across key cashew grades.

📊 Q1/2026 Global Supply Situation

Q1 marked the early stage of the new crop cycle, with raw cashew nut (RCN) supply gradually entering the market from West Africa.

Key producing regions:

• Ivory Coast

• Ghana

• Nigeria

• Tanzania

However, supply in Q1 remained limited due to:

• early harvest phase

• uneven crop quality

• cautious selling from origin

Vietnam maintained its dominant position, processing over 60% of global cashew kernels, ensuring stable export flow despite limited raw input.

💰 Q1 Price Snapshot – Vietnam FOB Market

The Q1 market showed a bottoming phase followed by gradual recovery.

📊 SVC Cashew Price Reference (24 March 2026)

Product Type	Grade	Price (USD/kg)	Q1 Signal
White Kernel	WW180	9.70	Premium demand strong
White Kernel	WW240	7.70	Stable recovery
White Kernel	WW320	7.05	Bulk demand anchor
Roasted (Skin)	A180	8.50	Growing snack demand
Roasted (Skin)	A240	7.00	Retail expansion
Roasted (Skin)	A320	6.80	Competitive segment

Live market tracking:

👉 https://svc.vn/cashew-price-update-svc-official/

📈 Q1 Price Trend – Stabilization Phase

Q1 price movement followed a clear pattern:

• Early Q1: Market cautious after 2025 volatility

• Mid Q1: Price reached bottom level

• Late Q1: Gradual recovery begins

Key observations:

• WW320 remained stable → strong bulk demand

• WW240 increased slightly → retail pull

• WW180 recovered faster → limited supply

This confirms that Q1 acted as a price stabilization phase before recovery.

🌎 Buyer Behavior in Q1/2026

Buyers showed a clear shift toward risk-controlled purchasing strategies.

Key behaviors:

• delaying large contracts

• placing smaller trial orders

• prioritizing reliable suppliers

• focusing on execution rather than speculation

This indicates a move from aggressive buying to strategic sourcing.

📦 Market Structure Shift – Value-Added Products

Q1 also confirmed the continued growth of:

• roasted cashew

• flavored cashew snacks

• private label products

Retail-ready products gained traction as buyers focused on:

• stable demand segments

• higher margin products

• direct-to-consumer channels

🔮 Q2/2026 Forecast – Market Direction

Entering Q2, the market shows clear signals of recovery and upward movement.

📊 Supply Outlook

• RCN supply increases with peak harvest

• Processing activity in Vietnam accelerates

• Supply improves but not excessive

💰 Price Outlook

Prices are expected to move upward gradually:

• WW320: +2% to +5%

• WW240: +3% to +7%

• WW180: +5% to +9%

Drivers:

• stronger demand return

• stable raw material pricing

• improved buyer confidence

📈 Market Trend

• Uptrend confirmed but controlled

• No extreme volatility expected

• Market becoming more structured

🚢 Logistics and Market Stability

Logistics conditions in Q2 are expected to remain stable, but still influenced by:

• geopolitical risks in shipping routes

• freight cost fluctuations

• container availability

Reliable exporters with strong logistics coordination will have advantage.

🧠 Strategic Implication for Buyers

Q1 provided a clear signal: the market has bottomed out and entered recovery.

For buyers, Q2 represents:

• early stage of price increase

• opportunity to secure supply

• lower risk compared to late 2025

Recommended strategy:

• secure contracts early in Q2

• work with reliable suppliers

• balance cost and supply stability

📈 Conclusion – From Stabilization to Recovery

The cashew market outlook 2026 shows a transition:

Q1 → Stabilization

Q2 → Controlled recovery

Q3 → Potential price pressure

The market is no longer volatile, but increasingly structured.

Buyers who act early in Q2 will benefit from better pricing and more stable supply conditions.

📧 Market & Export Coordination

📩 Email: thanh@svc.vn

📱 WhatsApp: (+84) 909 432 477

🌍 Think Cashew Vietnam, Think SVC.

Sources

International Nut and Dried Fruit Council

Vietnam Cashew Industry Reports

SVC Export Data

Global Commodity Analysis