As Vietnam prepares for the 2026 processing cycle, global attention turns to West Africa—the world’s largest producer of raw cashew nuts (RCN). Early indicators suggest a season shaped by climate impacts, shifting farmer behavior, and evolving export policies across Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Ghana.
Given that Vietnam imports more than 60% of the RCN used for domestic processing, understanding these early signals is essential for accurate price planning and capacity allocation.
🌍 1. Côte d’Ivoire – Stable Production, Tight Quality Control Expected
Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest RCN producer, is forecast to maintain strong crop volume in 2026.
Key market signals include:
- Stable yield but smaller nut count variations due to weather fluctuations
- Government tightening export procedures to reduce informal cross-border movements
- Expectation of more competitive RCN offers early in the season
- Strong interest from Vietnam for early contracts
Ivory Coast’s improved post-harvest handling could increase outturn consistency, benefiting large processors.
🇳🇬 2. Nigeria – Weather-Driven Variability and Rising Domestic Competition
Nigeria’s 2026 crop outlook remains mixed.
Key observations:
- Rainfall irregularities may affect kernel recovery rates
- Local processors increasingly compete with exporters for raw material
- Nut count expected to fluctuate wider than 2025
- Prices may open softer but firm once demand rises
Vietnamese importers will monitor moisture control and outturn values closely before committing large volumes.
🇬🇭 3. Ghana – Smaller Crop but Better Quality Prospects
Ghana’s RCN output is expected to remain moderate but with improved quality parameters compared to neighboring regions.
Buyer expectations:
- Higher KOR (kernel outturn ratio)
- Stronger interest from premium processors
- Potential early-season price firmness
Ghana’s premium positioning may influence Vietnam’s sourcing strategy for high-end kernels.
📦 4. How West Africa’s Crop Affects Vietnam’s Processing Capacity
Vietnam’s processing industry is highly sensitive to RCN volume and quality. Early signals suggest:
- Adequate supply for continuous processing in Q2–Q3/2026
- Possibility of price stability if major African crops perform as forecast
- Improved outturn levels reducing processing losses
- More active competition among Vietnamese buyers for high-quality RCN
Vietnam’s ability to maintain global export leadership will depend heavily on timely contract execution with West African suppliers.
📈 5. RCN Price Outlook – Early 2026 Indications
While official opening prices are still weeks away, buyers anticipate:
- Mildly stronger opening compared to early 2025
- Higher prices for premium lots (KOR > 50)
- Increased differentiation between origins
- Stronger demand from Vietnam, India, and emerging processors in Asia
The combination of stable supply and expanding processing capacity may support balanced price levels.
🔍 6. What Importers Should Prepare For
Global cashew importers and processors should anticipate:
- Earlier contract negotiations due to tighter quality demand
- Greater need for on-ground inspection and QC verification
- Closer monitoring of African port logistics and export schedules
- Potential shipping delays caused by regional infrastructure challenges
For Vietnam, securing early-season RCN will be critical to maintaining processing continuity for WW240, WW320, and LP production.
📌 Conclusion
The 2026 RCN outlook shows promising supply from West Africa, though quality and weather-related variability remain key factors. For Vietnam—the global cashew processing hub—the season’s success will depend on proactive sourcing, transparent quality assessment, and long-term partnerships with African suppliers.
📧 Contact for OEM & Export Coordination: thanh@svc.vn
📱 WhatsApp: (+84) 909 432 477
🌍 Think Cashew Vietnam, Think SVC.