The global cashew market is currently navigating a period of subdued activity and notable price declines. Over the past week, traders have observed increased inventory releases by stockists, compounding an already oversupplied market and resulting in steady pressure on wholesale prices. Key exporters, particularly from Vietnam and India, report that despite the peak sourcing season, offtake remains unusually weak.
In response, prices have dropped from $9.50 to $9.38 per 10 kg in major hubs—a decline of roughly $1.20 per 10 kg—while intra-week falls of up to $0.30 per kg continue to signal a market in retreat. Most industry analysts and traders agree: unless there is a dramatic surge in demand or a slowdown in new arrivals, any substantial recovery in cashew prices over the next 5–7 days is highly unlikely.
This bearish sentiment is echoed across major producing and trading regions, as buyers delay procurement in expectation of further price softness. Such cautious posturing further dampens overall trade volumes, reinforcing a wait-and-watch approach among market participants. Current market indicators suggest producers and exporters are bracing for continued volatility, and only a significant change in buyer activity or climatic effects on upcoming harvests could alter this fundamental market direction in the short term.
📈 Prices & Market Overview
| Origin | Location | Type & Grade | Organic | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | Hanoi | WW320 | No | FOB | 6.75 | 0% | Bearish |
| Vietnam | Hanoi | WW240 | No | FOB | 7.65 | 0% | Bearish |
| Vietnam | Hanoi | WS | No | FOB | 5.65 | 0% | Bearish |
| India | New Delhi | W320 | No | FOB | 7.07 | +1.1% | Bearish |
| India | New Delhi | W320 | Yes | FOB | 8.80 | +0.3% | Bearish |
| Netherlands | Dordrecht | WW320 | No | FCA | 5.25 | +1.0% | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot
- Stockists continue releasing existing inventories, intensifying oversupply.
- Seasonal demand, especially from key importing regions (Europe, US), remains below historical averages.
- Buyers are largely hesitant, anticipating further downward correction in prices before stocking up.
- No significant government or policy changes observed that might support higher prices or incentivize fresh offtake.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Global Supply: Vietnam, India, and West Africa remain the leading exporters, with 2024/25 output in line with last year but inventory overhang from previous seasons still unresolved.
- Demand Trends: Major consuming markets, including the EU and US, signal cautious retail and B2B activity. Foodservice and snack segment demand is flat, with some substitution toward cheaper nuts due to high consumer price sensitivity.
- Speculative Interest: Activity is low, with most participants sidelined pending signs of price stabilization.
- Recent Developments: No significant changes in export/import tariffs or phytosanitary restrictions reported in the past week.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Vietnam: Seasonal rains in southern cashew belts have eased after a brief dry spell. Crop condition is stable; no significant weather threats expected in the next three days.
- India: Drier-than-normal conditions in Kerala and Maharashtra; however, most regions report sufficient soil moisture for the current crop stage. Local forecasts predict mild showers, but no adverse effects foreseen for yield in the immediate term.
- West Africa: Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, and Nigeria are reporting normal weather conditions for harvest, supporting robust crop inflows into the global system.
🌐 Global Balance Sheet (2024/25, selected)
| Country | Est. Production (TMT) | Est. Exports (TMT) | Est. Stocks (TMT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 440 | 380 | 100 |
| India | 191 | 105 | 60 |
| Ivory Coast | 820 | 775 | 70 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 240 | 225 | 30 |
| Nigeria | 300 | 270 | 50 |
| EU (Import) | n/a | 615 | 20 |
| USA (Import) | n/a | 155 | 35 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term (3–7 days): Expect further downside or sideways movement as oversupply and buyer caution persist.
- Sellers: Avoid aggressive selling at or below current spot; consider moderate holding if cash flow permits.
- Buyers: Exercise patience, as risk of further declines remains. Initiate coverage only for urgent needs.
- Speculators: Sideline position recommended until clearer signs of demand improvement emerge.
- Processors: Monitor inventory levels and review supplier contract terms in anticipation of potential short-term bargains.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Type | Today (EUR/kg) | +1 Day | +2 Days | +3 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam (FOB, Hanoi) | WW320 | 6.75 | 6.74 | 6.72 | 6.70 |
| India (FOB, Delhi) | W320 | 7.07 | 7.05 | 7.03 | 7.01 |
| NL (FCA, Dordrecht) | WW320 | 5.25 | 5.24 | 5.22 | 5.21 |
📌 Source: Commodity-Board.com