Overview. Entering Q4/2025, global kernel demand typically lifts on festive seasons (Diwali, Christmas, early Lunar New Year) and restocking cycles. Export values have strengthened year-to-date while RCN prices have eased versus early 2025—creating a cost “window” for processors that can manage quality and timing.
📈 Demand & Markets
- China leads growth, with steady pull for WW320/WW240 and retail-ready SKUs.
- United States remains cautious amid policy/tariff noise; orders tend to be smaller and closer to delivery dates.
- EU & South Korea are stable buyers, prioritizing compliance (BRC, HACCP, FSPCA, Halal, Kosher) and private-label formats.
🌾 Supply & Raw Cashew Nuts (RCN)
- West Africa (notably Côte d’Ivoire): high 2025 crop projections keep RCN values contained; good availability supports Q4 procurement.
- East Africa (Tanzania, Mozambique): peak auctions in Q4 add volume, but late-season lots require tighter moisture/outturn control.
- Cambodia/Indochina: proximity enables quick turns for short-lead contracts, often at a slight premium for quality/logistics.
💵 Pricing & Margins
- Kernel (FOB Vietnam): WW320 broadly in the ~US$3.15–3.35/lb range, with W240 modestly higher; India typically prices a notch above, and select Africa offers can be competitive depending on grade.
- RCN: CFR into Asia has softened versus H1, improving margin potential for Q4–Q1/2026 deliveries—provided yield and quality are maintained.
- FX & Freight: a stronger USD/VND raises local cost bases; ocean rates are steadier than in 2024 but still warrant contingency.
🔦 Where the Opportunity Is
- Value-added SKUs for the festive window: roasted/salted and flavored cashews, retail pouches and PET jars.
- OEM/Private label into EU/Asia: leverage certifications and packaging agility to widen contribution margins.
- RCN timing: September–October is a tactical window to secure part of needs for late Q4 and early Q1.
⚠️ What to Watch
- U.S. policy/tariff developments—key for price acceptance and order pacing.
- Late-season RCN quality—moisture and outturn slippage can erode yields.
- Currency volatility—direct impact on landed costs and working capital.
✅ Execution Playbook (Q4/2025)
- September: phase-in RCN purchases (30–50% of Q4/Q1 requirement); reserve OEM/packing slots.
- October–November: ship steadily; emphasize retail SKUs; keep safety stock balanced.
- December: reassess FOB; consider forward cover for early Q1/2026 if pricing is favorable.
📧 Contact (Cashew OEM & Export): thanh@svc.vn
📱 WhatsApp: (+84) 909 432 477