Vietnam – the world’s No.1 cashew kernel exporter – is preparing for the 2026 crop amid complex climate fluctuations. With cashew-growing areas concentrated in Binh Phuoc, Dong Nai, Dak Lak, Gia Lai, and the Central Highlands, weather remains the decisive factor shaping productivity, quality, and production costs for the entire industry.
🌱 Weather and the Growth Stages of Cashew Trees
- Flowering stage (Dec 2025 – Feb 2026): Cashew trees need consistent sunlight and dry conditions for flowers to bloom and pollinate. Unseasonal rains can cause premature flower drop and significantly reduce fruit set.
- Fruit development stage (Feb – Mar 2026): Moderate humidity is required. Prolonged drought may lead to small fruits, shriveled kernels, and lower white kernel ratios.
- Harvest stage (Mar – Apr 2026): Dry weather ensures high-quality kernels. If heavy rain occurs, nuts are prone to mold, discoloration, and scorched kernels, lowering export quality.
🔍 Climate Outlook 2025–2026
According to the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration, the El Niño phenomenon is expected to weaken by late 2025, but localized droughts may persist in the Southeast and Central Highlands. At the same time, unseasonal rains remain a risk due to global climate change.
- Temperature: forecast to be 0.5–1°C higher than the long-term average, with hot days and cooler nights → causing stress on cashew trees.
- Rainfall: expected to decrease during the dry season but spike at the end, raising the risk of rains during flowering.
- Pests and diseases: alternating drought and scattered rain create favorable conditions for anthracnose disease and fruit borers.
📊 Expected Impact on the 2026 Crop
- Yield: forecast at 1.3–1.4 tons/ha, potentially lower than 2025 averages if droughts persist.
- National output: estimated at 1.7–1.8 million tons of RCN, relatively stable but unevenly distributed – the Central Highlands may see sharp declines, while Binh Phuoc maintains output thanks to intensive farming.
- Kernel quality: if rains occur during harvest, the ratio of white kernels may decrease, with more scorched or discolored kernels, complicating exports to the US and EU.
🌍 Implications for the Export Market
- FOB prices: any decline in domestic yield or quality will push up FOB prices, particularly for popular grades like WW320 and WW240.
- Supplementary imports: Vietnamese processors will need to increase RCN imports from Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, and Ghana to offset domestic shortages.
- International buyers: US, EU, and Middle Eastern customers will demand stable supply and full certification. Companies like SVC must therefore manage both quality control and secure alternative raw material sources.
🏭 Strategies for Cashew Exporters
- Early raw material contracts: secure RCN imports from Africa ahead of shortages.
- Invest in value-added processing: expand into roasted, flavored, retail-packed cashews and OEM/private label to reduce reliance on raw materials.
- Farmer partnerships: support local farmers with fertilizers, drip irrigation, and agronomy training to improve fruit set under adverse weather.
- Weather & crop monitoring: closely track climate forecasts to adjust production, FOB contracts, and export strategies.
✅ Conclusion
Weather will remain a decisive factor for Vietnam’s 2026 cashew crop. While national output is forecast to stay stable at 1.7–1.8 million tons, local yield declines and quality fluctuations remain major risks. With early planning in raw material sourcing, investment in processing, and strong OEM/private label capacity, Vietnamese exporters – including SVC – can mitigate risks, maintain supply chains, and protect their No.1 global position.
📧 Contact for OEM & Export (Cashew): thanh@svc.vn
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