The global raw cashew nut (RCN) market is entering a period of uncertainty as we move into September 2025. While prices have softened across key origins like West Africa and Cambodia, many processors in Vietnam are faced with a critical question: Is this the right time to stock up or should we continue to hold off and wait for further declines?
To answer this, we analyze current RCN prices, supply conditions, quality considerations, and the market psychology driving procurement decisions in Vietnam.
📊 Current Price Landscape – Declining but Volatile
As of late August 2025:
- 🌍 Ivory Coast RCN (CFR to Vietnam): USD 1,340–1,375 per ton (outturn 46–47 lbs)
- 🇰🇭 Cambodian RCN: Slightly cheaper due to proximity and lower shipping costs
- 🇻🇳 Local Vietnamese RCN stock: Limited and priced higher due to demand from small-scale processors
📉 Compared to early 2025, prices have dropped by 5–7%, driven by high inventories in Vietnam, cautious purchasing in India, and a slowdown in kernel exports to the U.S. due to recent tariff policies.
📦 Why You Should Consider Buying Now
✅ Lower Input Costs
Purchasing RCN at current prices offers a rare opportunity to lower cost of goods sold (COGS), especially for processors planning shipments for Q4/2025.
✅ Seasonal Demand Pressure
Demand for kernels typically increases ahead of the year-end holidays. Buyers in the EU, Middle East, and China are expected to ramp up orders from October onward.
✅ Export Kernel Prices Holding
Despite global tension, Vietnam’s WW320 FOB price remains stable at USD 3.15–3.35/lb, ensuring decent margins if RCN costs are managed smartly.
🕰 Why Waiting Might Still Be Smart
❗ Possible Oversupply from East Africa
Harvests from Tanzania and Mozambique will peak soon. If their volumes are strong, RCN prices may drop further in October.
❗ Quality Deterioration Risk
As the season progresses, RCN moisture content and outturn quality tend to decline, especially from rain-affected regions. Processors may save on cost but lose on yield.
❗ Exchange Rate Uncertainty
With the Vietnamese đồng weakening rapidly, the real VND cost per ton may still rise even if the USD price remains flat.
🔍 Strategic Procurement Advice for Vietnamese Processors
- 📈 Split your procurement volume into early-buy and deferred lots to hedge against both price and quality risk.
- 🧪 Prioritize quality verification, especially with late-season RCN. Ensure proper moisture control and outturn levels above 47 lbs.
- 📉 Negotiate flexible delivery terms with suppliers, including inspection on arrival and delayed payment options.
- 🌐 Diversify sourcing origins to balance quality and lead time—Cambodia for quick access, Ivory Coast for bulk, and East Africa for price leverage.
- 💬 Monitor exchange rates daily: even a 1% movement in USD/VND can impact landed cost by USD 10–15/ton.
🧭 Verdict: Buy Smart, Not Just Early
September 2025 presents a tactical window for Vietnamese cashew exporters. While prices are attractive, buyers must navigate risks related to quality, currency, and upcoming harvest volumes. A phased buying strategy—combining early action with close monitoring—will help secure supply while protecting profitability.
📧 Contact for OEM & Export Coordination: thanh@svc.vn
📱 WhatsApp: (+84) 909 432 477