In 2025, Vietnam’s cashew industry is facing not only global market shifts but also significant domestic financial volatility — most notably, the sharp depreciation of the Vietnamese đồng (VND) against the U.S. dollar (USD). As both import costs (for raw cashew nuts) and export revenues are denominated in USD, the exchange rate directly impacts the sector’s cost structures, profit margins, and long-term competitiveness.
📊 1. Exchange Rate Volatility: VND Weakens Further
As of mid-August 2025:
- Reference rate: 25,245 VND/USD
- Market rate: fluctuating between 26,090 – 26,450 VND/USD
- VND has depreciated by approximately 4.9% compared to August 2024
This decline is above the regional average and puts financial strain on Vietnam-based cashew processors who import large volumes of raw materials.
📦 2. Cashew: A USD-Denominated Cycle on Both Ends
Vietnam’s cashew processors:
- Import raw cashew nuts (RCN) primarily from West Africa, paid in USD
- Export kernels globally to buyers also paying in USD
This creates a paradox: fluctuations in USD/VND may not impact invoice values directly, but they strongly affect local cash flows, input costs, and real profitability — especially when payments and purchases occur at different times.
📈 3. Currency Depreciation: Profit Opportunity or Cost Trap?
Scenario 1 – Favorable
If processors already purchased RCN earlier at lower exchange rates, a weaker VND results in higher VND revenue when export payments are received, boosting accounting profits.
Scenario 2 – Risky
If processors are purchasing RCN now — when the USD is strong — input costs in VND rise, while export prices may remain fixed under forward contracts. This creates tight or even negative margins, particularly for bulk FOB shipments.
Exchange rate volatility benefits only those who manage cash flow and inventory strategically. For others, it becomes a major risk factor.
🔍 4. Price Implications and Market Reactions
WW320 FOB prices from Vietnam remain steady around USD 3.15–3.35/lb. However, rising input costs due to currency pressure may soon prompt price adjustments across contracts scheduled for Q4 2025.
Importers planning shipments in October–December should actively monitor exchange rates and maintain flexibility on volume, payment terms, or product lines.
🧭 5. Strategic Recommendations for Exporters
💼 1. Use hedging instruments
Apply forward contracts or forex tools to lock in exchange rates for major raw material purchases and incoming export payments.
📦 2. Focus on higher-margin OEM lines
Branded and retail-ready cashew SKUs provide better room to absorb exchange-driven cost increases than commodity-grade bulk shipments.
🌱 3. Localize raw material sourcing
Strengthen domestic cashew cultivation partnerships to reduce dependency on USD-denominated imports.
📊 4. Monitor daily FX and FOB movements
Integrate live dashboards to quickly adjust pricing, purchasing, and quote cycles based on real-time market and forex data.
📌 Conclusion
The USD/VND exchange rate in 2025 is not merely a financial metric — it is a strategic determinant for Vietnam’s cashew exporters. Companies that fail to adapt may lose margin and competitiveness. Those who master cash flow planning, product mix flexibility, and hedging will lead the next wave of sustainable export growth.
📧 Contact for OEM & Export Coordination: thanh@svc.vn
📱 WhatsApp: (+84) 909 432 477
📚 Sources:
Vietnam News
VNCommex
Hanfimex Market Report