September 2025 marks a crucial turning point for Vietnam’s cashew industry as it enters the peak export season. While export values are on the rise, several challenges and shifts in market dynamics demand close attention heading into Q4.
🔹 Export Value Rises Sharply, Exceeding USD 2.8 Billion
According to Vietnam Customs and VINACAS, Vietnam exported over USD 2.8 billion worth of cashew products in the first 7 months of 2025, an increase of 18% in value year-on-year, despite only modest volume growth. The average export price reached USD 6,805/MT, up nearly 24% from 2024. July marked the fourth consecutive month of growth.
This strong rebound in value reflects growing global demand, especially beyond traditional Western markets.
🔹 China Becomes Vietnam’s Largest Cashew Market
As of July 2025, China has officially surpassed the U.S. to become Vietnam’s largest cashew buyer, importing over 96,000 MT valued at USD 608 million. That’s a 29% increase in volume and 47% in value compared to the same period last year.
In contrast, exports to the U.S. declined 28% in volume and nearly 12% in value, largely due to the 10% import tariff imposed in April 2025.
The shift highlights the need for Vietnamese exporters to diversify and adapt swiftly to new trade flows.
🔹 Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) Prices Fall Slightly
RCN prices dropped from USD 1,450/MT to around USD 1,350/MT, creating cost advantages for processors heading into the busy year-end season. Meanwhile, WW320 FOB Vietnam prices are holding steady around USD 3.15–3.35/lb, though short-term corrections are expected.
Lower input prices offer breathing room, but exporters must remain cautious on inventory and shipment timing.
🔹 Global Market Outlook Remains Positive
According to Mordor Intelligence, Vietnam’s cashew industry is projected to reach USD 5.08 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8%, reaching USD 6.73 billion by 2030. This reflects robust global demand, especially for value-added and private-label packaged products.
🔎 Key Observations & Strategy Recommendations
| Indicator | September 2025 Status |
|---|---|
| Export price trend | Up nearly 24% YoY, FOB holding steady |
| RCN price trend | Slight decline, favorable for processors |
| Leading growth market | China, followed by EU and South Korea |
| Main export challenge | U.S. tariff impact, rising African competition |
| Key opportunity | OEM/private label, market diversification |
SVC Cashew recommends international buyers to:
- Monitor FOB price fluctuations closely in September
- Prioritize WW320, WW240, and roasted/flavored cashew SKUs
- Leverage OEM and regional packaging strategies to prepare for Q4 demand
📧 Contact for quotations & OEM: thanh@svc.vn
📱 WhatsApp: (+84) 909 432 477
Data sources:
– VietnamPlus (VNA)
– VnExpress Economy
– Elmar Spices
– Mordor Intelligence
– African Cashew Alliance
– Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture Reports (2025)