Following a sluggish Q1/2025 due to tariff concerns and lower demand, Q2/2025 is expected to mark the recovery phase for Vietnam’s cashew sector. However, alongside the opportunities, exporters will also face significant challenges during the peak export season.
🔹 1. Export Activity: Signs of Recovery In Q2/2025, Vietnam’s cashew exports are forecast to rebound, particularly in April and May, as global markets begin stocking up for year-end demand. Demand from the U.S., EU, and China is projected to rise, helping boost shipment volumes after Q1 declines.
💰 2. Export Prices Remain High Cashew prices are likely to stay at high levels due to limited raw supply from Africa, impacted by weather and high logistics/packaging costs. Although supply may rebalance, consistent global demand will support price stability.
🚚 3. Logistics and Cost Pressures One of the biggest concerns remains the elevated logistics costs, especially ocean freight to Europe, China, and the Middle East. Exporters should streamline logistics operations, consolidate shipments, favor FCL over LCL, and partner with reliable logistics providers to maintain competitive cost levels.
🥜 4. Deep Processing Adds Value With fluctuating supply and more selective orders, businesses should shift to value-added products such as roasted cashews, cashew butter, and snacks. These products offer higher margins and better access to premium markets, helping maintain profitability even without volume growth.
⚠️ 5. U.S. Tariff Risks The full list of Vietnamese products affected by the proposed 46% U.S. tariff has yet to be released. The cashew industry should closely monitor developments and avoid large shipments to the U.S. until clear policy details emerge.
✅ Conclusion Q2/2025 will be a crucial period for Vietnam’s cashew exporters. Those who adapt quickly, control costs, and shift to higher-value processing will gain a competitive edge in a volatile market.
💎 SVC remains committed to supporting Vietnamese cashew businesses through stable quality, modern processing systems, and an export network spanning 43 countries.
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