🌎 Vietnam Cashew Authority · Hub
📅 08 July 2026 ·
🕐 10 min read ·
📍 Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS) Β· SVC Group
· 🔄 Updated annually
19
Consecutive years as world's #1 cashew exporter
>80% of global kernel exports
$5.4B
Record export value 2025
Target 2026: $5B Β· 800,000 tonnes
3.12M
Tonnes RCN imported 2025
$4.66B import value Β· +48% YoY
90%
RCN sourced via import
~10% domestic production only
“Vietnam demonstrated in 2025 that it can still move volume at scale. What it did not demonstrate is cost relief. With raw material prices structurally higher and sourcing risk increasingly concentrated, margin management — not export growth — will define success in 2026.” — Rotterdam Commodity Trading, January 2026
Vietnam has been the world’s largest exporter of cashew kernels for 19 consecutive years. It accounts for more than 80% of global kernel exports. These are facts most buyers already know.
What buyers need in 2026 is a deeper picture: how the industry actually works, what is changing beneath the headline numbers, and what those changes mean for sourcing decisions. That is what this article covers — drawing on data from VINACAS, Vietnam Customs, and independent commodity analysts.
📊 The numbers Β· 2025 baseline
Vietnam Cashew By The Numbers: 2025 Full-Year Results
Vietnam exported approximately 797,739 tonnes of cashew kernels in full-year 2025, exceeding the official annual plan and marking a ~4% year-on-year increase in volume. Export value rose much faster, by roughly +18% YoY, supported by higher average FOB prices. The average export price during the first seven months of 2025 reached $6,805 per metric ton, a 21.4% increase over the same period of last year and the highest price in recent years.
Export volume Β· 2025
797,739 T
+4% YoY Β· exceeded annual plan Β· 19th consecutive year as global #1
Export value Β· 2025
$5.4 billion
+18% YoY Β· record high Β· avg. price $6,805/tonne in 7M 2025
RCN imports Β· 2025
3.12M tonnes
+25% volume YoY Β· $4.66B value Β· +48% value YoY
VINACAS target Β· 2026
800,000 T Β· $5B
Lower revenue target than 2025 due to forecast price fluctuation Β· volume maintained
The most telling figure from 2025: RCN import value rose +48% YoY while export volume rose only +4%. This divergence between volume growth and value growth is the core margin pressure defining the industry in 2026.
Where Vietnam Sources Its Raw Cashew Nuts
Vietnam processes far more cashew than it grows. Vietnam accounts for over 65% of global raw cashew imports and supplies more than 80% of exported cashew kernels worldwide. Vietnam requires more than 3.5 million metric tons of raw cashews annually for processing, but domestic production covers only about 10% of this. The remaining 90%+ is imported from four primary origins.
Cambodia
~1.0M tonnes
Structural anchor. +27.6% YoY in 2025. Most reliable origin β seasonal, concentrated Q1βQ2. MoU signed with VINACAS for direct farm-to-factory supply
Ivory Coast
~780K tonnes
Largest African origin. Volatile in 2025 β export controls, delayed inspections, weather stress. Late-season rebound but structural risk persists for 2026
Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania
~1.3M tonnes
African nations tightening export restrictions to retain raw material for domestic processing. Growing structural risk for Vietnam’s import supply chain
Most raw cashews are imported from Africa, where several countries have raised tariffs or imposed export restrictions to retain cashews for local processing. This is not a short-term disruption β it reflects a deliberate policy shift by African governments to capture more value from their cashew crop domestically. For Vietnam’s processing industry, it means higher input costs and tighter supply availability on a structural basis.
🌎 Demand side Β· export markets
Vietnam’s Top Export Markets In 2026
In the first seven months of 2025, China, the United States and the Netherlands remained Vietnam’s top three cashew export markets, accounting for 23.2%, 20.1% and 9.1%, respectively, of the total export volume. The market map has shifted significantly over the past two years.
| Market | Share | 2025β2026 Trend | Key driver |
|---|
| China | 23.2% | ↑ Strong growth | Economic recovery Β· healthy snack demand Β· +29% vol, +47% value YoY (7M 2025) |
| United States | 20.1% | ↓ Recovering | Tariff disruption in 2025 (20% retaliatory) Β· stabilising H1 2026 Β· tariff reduced to 0% for kernels |
| Netherlands | 9.1% | ↔ Stable | EU entry hub Β· re-export to Germany, Belgium, France |
| Middle East (5 countries) | ~10% | ↓ Disrupted | UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan Β· geopolitical instability freezing orders early 2026 |
| Other EU | ~15% | ↔ Stable | Germany, UK, Spain Β· rising compliance bar (BRC, SMETA) |
| Rest of world | ~23% | ↑ Expanding | Southeast Asia, South Asia, Australia growing |
China: the structural shift
In the first two months of 2026, exports to China increased by 15.2% in volume and 23.7% in value compared to the same period last year, reaching approximately 8,000 tonnes, equivalent to over $55 million USD. China’s emergence as Vietnam’s #1 buyer is the most consequential demand shift of the past two years β but it compresses pricing flexibility, as Chinese buyers remain highly price-sensitive.
United States: recovering after tariff disruption
The US continues to be a strategic market as tariffs on Vietnamese cashew kernels have been reduced to 0%. The volume decline of 2025 created a restocking opportunity in H2 2026 that well-positioned processors are now moving to capture. Vietnam still holds over 87% of US cashew import market share despite the disruption.
Middle East: geopolitical headwind
According to Mr. Bach Khanh Nhut, Vice Chairman of VINACAS, orders to the Middle East are currently almost frozen due to geopolitical instability in the region. This has been partially offset by the China surge, but the Middle East’s 10% share represents a significant revenue gap that the industry is watching closely for signs of normalisation.
📈 Processing capacity Β· industry structure
Vietnam’s Processing Capacity And Industry Structure
Vietnam’s cashew processing industry is geographically concentrated and scale-intensive.
Primary production hub
Binh Phuoc
Largest cashew-growing province Β· >50% of national cultivation area and output Β· proximity to raw material
Processing cluster
Dong Nai, Binh Duong
Export-oriented processing factories concentrated near Ho Chi Minh City for port access (Cat Lai, Cai Mep)
Kernel grade mix Β· 2025
86.45% whole
Shelled whole kernels dominate Β· WW320 largest volume grade Β· value-added (roasted, flavoured) growing share
Market size Β· 2026
$4.8B
CAGR 6.2% forecast through 2035 Β· reaching $8.25B Β· driven by clean-label snack demand
Vietnamese firms still control more than 80% of global kernel exports, which is supported by entrenched processing capacity. Technology-driven productivity gains and direct-to-consumer e-commerce channels are widening margin opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises.
🔄 What’s changing Β· 2026 trends
Four Structural Changes Shaping Vietnam’s Cashew Industry In 2026
🔥
Deep Processing Is Replacing Raw Kernel Exports
VINACAS has made deep processing its core 2026 strategy β ready-to-eat roasted, organic, and premium packaged products commanding 10β20% price premiums over raw equivalents. New processing plants are being commissioned specifically for value-added output. Profits from processed products are significantly higher than those from exporting raw materials.
📋
Compliance Requirements Are Raising The Entry Bar
The United States and the European Union are enforcing increasingly strict standards for traceability, pesticide residues and sustainable production. BRC Grade A or AA is becoming a prerequisite for EU retail supply. SMETA is now standard for buyer due diligence. Processors without full certification are losing access to premium channels.
🌿
African RCN Protectionism Is Structurally Tightening Supply
African governments are systematically tightening raw cashew export policies to develop domestic processing. This is not temporary β it is a multi-year policy shift. African countries are stepping up protectionist policies for domestic production. Processors with diversified, long-term supply agreements are better protected than spot buyers.
🌐
China Is Reshaping The Demand Map
China’s emergence as #1 buyer has stabilised volume β but at tighter margins. The increased consumption of nutritious nuts by major retail corporations in China is creating significant opportunities for Vietnamese businesses. The strategic question for 2026 is whether processors can maintain EU and US premium channel relationships while accommodating China’s volume demands.
🎯 What this means for buyers
What Vietnam’s Industry Structure Means For Importers In 2026
Understanding the structure of Vietnam’s cashew industry helps buyers make better sourcing decisions. Here is what the data above implies in practice:
Choose processors with diversified RCN sourcing. African supply instability is structural. Processors dependent on a single origin face real supply risk. Ask specifically about Cambodia coverage, African origin mix, and domestic supply access
Prioritise certified processors for EU and US supply chains. BRC and SMETA are increasingly non-negotiable. Processors without these certifications are losing access to premium channels β and the compliance bar will only rise further
Factor in the China dynamic when assessing capacity availability. China’s growing share means capacity competition is real. Processors who are managing large China programs may have less flexibility for smaller OEM or private label programs. Confirm available capacity at brief stage
Engage early for Q4 programs. Vietnam’s processing calendar has seasonal constraints. The JulyβAugust window is the optimal entry point for Q4 programs, before seasonal demand from Christmas and China year-end creates capacity tightness
Evaluate deep processing capability. If your product requires roasted, flavoured, or value-added cashews, confirm the processor has dedicated lines and documented roast profiles. Not all kernel processors have invested in this capability
💬 CEO Perspective
💬 CEO Perspective
Vietnam’s position as the world’s largest cashew processor is built on 35 years of accumulated expertise, infrastructure, and supply chain relationships that no competing country can replicate quickly. But in 2026, that position requires active management — not passive confidence. The buyers who understand this, and who choose partners who are managing it properly, will have supply chains that are resilient. Those who do not will have a problem they did not see coming.
— πππ, πππ ππ§πππ«π§πππ’π¨π§ππ₯ πππ
🏭
About SVC Group
BRC · SMETA · Halal · Kosher · HACCP · FSPCA · 700+ MT/month · 72+ countries · Dong Nai Province, Vietnam. RCN sourcing across Cambodia, West Africa and domestic Vietnamese supply.
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