Six months into 2026, Vietnam’s cashew industry is navigating a market that looks strong on the surface but carries structural pressures that will define the second half of the year. Export volumes remain solid. Global demand for cashew kernels has not softened materially. And Vietnam continues to hold its position as the world’s largest cashew kernel exporter — a title it has held for 19 consecutive years, accounting for more than 80% of global kernel exports.
But the picture underneath is more complicated. Raw material costs are structurally elevated. The margin between input prices and output prices remains uncomfortably thin for many processors. The US market — which historically absorbed the largest single share of Vietnamese exports — is recovering slowly from tariff-related disruptions that began in 2025. And China — now Vietnam’s single largest buyer — continues to grow, but at price points that leave limited room for error.
This review is SVC’s mid-year reading of where the market actually stands, what H1 2026 delivered, and what buyers should expect from H2.
“Volume is strong on paper — but the latest data reveals a market that is becoming more expensive, more selective, and structurally tighter beneath the surface. This is the behaviour of a market preparing for risk, not excess.” — Rotterdam Commodity Trading, Dec 2025
Section 1
H1 2026 at a glance
Export performance: Vietnam’s cashew exports in H1 2026 are tracking in line with VINACAS’s full-year target of approximately 800,000 tonnes and USD 5 billion in revenue. Based on trajectory from H2 2025 — which saw December alone generate USD 503.5 million in export value on 73,425 tonnes — the first half of 2026 has maintained volume but at prices that are firmer than H1 2025.
Price levels: WW320 FOB Ho Chi Minh has ranged between USD 7.00 and USD 7.50/kg through H1 2026. WW240 has tracked at USD 7.40–7.80/kg. WW180 remains the premium grade, sustaining above USD 9.00/kg for most of the half.
Raw material costs: Vietnam imported 3.12 million tonnes of raw cashew nuts (RCN) in full-year 2025 at significantly elevated average cost. H1 2026 RCN input costs remain high, with the industry still operating on thin processing margins.
Market shift: China has consolidated its position as the dominant single market for Vietnamese cashews — a structural shift that accelerated through 2025 and has continued into 2026.
Section 2
The supply side: RCN costs are the defining pressure
Vietnam’s cashew processing industry has a fundamental structural characteristic that every buyer should understand: the country processes far more than it grows. Vietnam accounts for over 65% of global raw cashew imports and supplies more than 80% of exported cashew kernels worldwide — but domestic production covers only about 10% of processing needs. The remaining 90% is imported.
This import dependency creates a direct transmission mechanism between global RCN prices and the cost of Vietnamese processed kernels. When RCN prices rise — as they did sharply through 2025 — processors absorb higher input costs that cannot always be passed through to buyers immediately. For full-year 2025, Vietnam imported 3.12 million tonnes of RCN worth approximately USD 4.66 billion. Raw material costs rose faster than kernel prices throughout the year, leaving the processing sector running at high utilisation just to defend margins — a fragile position if demand softens or supply tightens simultaneously.
African countries — Vietnam’s main cashew suppliers — are tightening policies by banning export of raw cashews at the beginning of the season or imposing high taxes to retain materials for domestic processing. This is a structural shift, not a short-term disruption, and it is making Vietnam’s RCN sourcing both more expensive and more uncertain on a forward basis.
Cambodia: the structural anchor
Cambodia remains Vietnam’s most structurally reliable RCN origin, accounting for nearly 1.0 million tonnes YTD — up 27.6% YoY in 2025. However, Cambodia’s supply is seasonal and concentrated. A poor Cambodian crop has an outsized effect on Vietnam’s total RCN availability, particularly in Q1 when African supply is limited. Processors with diversified sourcing across Cambodia, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, Ghana, and domestic Vietnamese material are better positioned than those dependent on a single origin.
Ivory Coast: volume recovered, confidence has not
Ivory Coast re-asserted itself as the largest single African supplier in recent months following months of erratic flows caused by export restrictions, delayed inspections, and logistical friction. The late-season rebound suggests volumes deferred in Q2–Q3 are now clearing — but it does little to restore confidence given persistent dryness and tree stress reported across Ivorian cashew regions. For buyers, the implication is clear: West African supply instability is structural, not episodic.
The most telling figure from 2025: Vietnam’s RCN import value rose +48% YoY while export volume rose only +4%. This divergence between volume growth and value growth is the core margin pressure the industry is managing heading into H2 2026.
Section 3
The demand side: markets are shifting
China: the new dominant market
The most consequential market development of the past eighteen months is China’s emergence as Vietnam’s largest single cashew export market, surpassing the United States. In the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam exported 96,000 metric tons of cashews to China valued at USD 608 million — a 29% increase in volume and a 47% increase in value year on year. China’s surge was driven by economic recovery and growing demand for healthy agricultural products. However, the shift to China also compresses pricing flexibility, as Asian markets remain highly price-sensitive.
United States: a market in recovery
In the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam exported 83,000 metric tons of cashews to the United States, valued at USD 561 million — a 27.5% drop in volume and an 11.7% decline in value. This reduction is mainly attributable to retaliatory tariffs of 20% that eroded Vietnam’s price competitiveness. The good news for H2 2026: the US market is showing signs of stabilisation. American importers have largely absorbed the tariff reality into their pricing structures. Data from the US International Trade Commission confirms Vietnam still holds over 87% of US cashew import market share despite the volume drop. The restocking window is opening in Q3.
European Union: stable demand, rising standards
European demand has remained broadly stable through H1 2026. The Netherlands, Germany, and Spain continue as the primary entry points. Cashew consumption in Europe is increasing due to the growing trend of healthy snacking — particularly in spreads, snack bars, and organic products. However, BRC Grade A or AA is increasingly a prerequisite rather than a differentiator. SMETA audits are being requested more frequently. For certified processors, Europe represents the highest-value channel. For those who cannot demonstrate compliance, it is becoming a closed market.
Middle East: strategic growth region
The Middle East now includes five countries in Vietnam’s top 20 export markets: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Israel, and Jordan — with total exports reaching nearly 80,000 tonnes, accounting for 10% of Vietnam’s total production. Halal certification from a recognised body, combined with Kosher for certain markets, has become a meaningful commercial differentiator in this region.
Section 4
Price outlook: H2 2026
WW320 — The benchmark grade: Expect pricing to remain in the USD 7.00–7.80/kg FOB HCMC range through Q3, with potential firming toward Q4 as seasonal demand from Christmas markets (EU, US) and China’s year-end consumption cycle comes into play. Significant upside above USD 8.00/kg would require a supply disruption or sharper-than-expected recovery in US buying.
WW240 — Premium whole grade: Likely to track 40–60 cents above WW320 through H2. Strong demand from retail private label programs in Europe has supported WW240 pricing through H1.
WW180 — The large kernel premium: Pricing will remain elevated above USD 9.00/kg. WW180 supply is inherently constrained by raw material quality, and premium snack and gifting channels continue to absorb available volume.
Roasted and value-added grades: Deep-processed products (A320 roasted salted, flavoured varieties) continue to command a 10–20% premium over equivalent raw grades — a spread that will likely hold or widen as brand differentiation in retail becomes more important.
Section 5
What H2 means for buyers
Lock in H2 contracts before Q3 seasonal demand peaks. The window between now and mid-August is typically the most favourable for forward pricing before Christmas-season demand pushes prices up. Buyers who wait until September are historically paying more.
Prioritise certified suppliers. The compliance bar — BRC, SMETA, Halal, Kosher — is rising across all major markets. Switching to a non-certified supplier to save a few cents per kilogram is a risk that has become harder to justify when a single audit failure can remove a product from retail shelves.
Evaluate supplier RCN sourcing diversification. Suppliers best positioned for H2 are those with diversified RCN sourcing — not dependent on a single African origin — and with committed supply from Cambodia locked in at the start of the season.
For OEM and private label programs: July and August are the practical deadline for programs that need to be on shelf for Q4 peak season. From product specification through sampling, approval, packaging production, and shipping — six to eight weeks minimum lead time is required. The conversation needs to start now.
Section 6
SVC’s position in H2 2026
At SVC, our approach to H2 2026 is built around three commitments to our buyers.
Section 7
Looking ahead: the structural story for 2026 and beyond
The mid-year picture for Vietnam’s cashew industry in 2026 is one of a market that has matured past the era of easy growth and is now competing on quality, compliance, and supply reliability rather than simply on price. VINACAS has identified the strategic direction: a strong shift towards processing high value-added products — deep processing — rather than continuing to export mainly semi-processed kernels.
The global cashew market was valued at USD 7.78 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 8.14 billion in 2025 and USD 11.67 billion in 2033, growing at 4.6% per year. The market will grow. The buyers who benefit most from that growth are those who lock in reliable manufacturing partnerships now — before Q4 demand peaks and before the supply tightness that VINACAS and processors are already watching for in late 2026 becomes a pricing event.
VINACAS 2026 target: export 800,000 tonnes generating USD 5 billion in revenue — an ambitious figure given that input material prices are rising faster than output prices, and African countries are simultaneously tightening RCN export policies.
Quick reference
H2 2026 data summary
| Grade | H1 2026 FOB range | H2 2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|
| WW320 | $7.00–7.50/kg | $7.00–7.80/kg · Q4 firming likely |
| WW240 | $7.40–7.80/kg | Stable · 40–60¢ premium over WW320 |
| WW180 | $9.00–9.60/kg | Elevated · constrained supply |
| A320 Roasted | +10–20% vs raw | Premium spread stable to widening |
| Market | H1 2026 trend | H2 watch |
|---|---|---|
| China | Dominant buyer · volume growing | Price sensitivity · policy risk |
| United States | Recovery from 2025 tariff disruption | Restocking window opens Q3 |
| European Union | Stable · compliance bar rising | BRC/SMETA increasingly required |
| Middle East | Consistent growth | Halal/Kosher certification key |
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