📅 02 September 2026 ·
🕐 8 min read ·
📍 SVC Group, Vietnam ·
🔄 Updated monthly
Peak Q4 delivery season — containers moving through Cat Lai and Cai Mep
$7.25
WW320 FOB HCMC
↑ Highest since April
$8.10
WW240 FOB HCMC
↑ 6th month of gains
$0.85
WW240–WW320 spread
↔ Stopped widening
Oct
Current delivery window
Pushed out again
September is peak delivery season. Containers booked in July and August are moving through Cat Lai and Cai Mep now, heading for European and North American shelves ahead of the Christmas retail cycle. For most buyers, this month is about receiving product rather than negotiating for it.
But two things changed in the pricing data this month that are worth attention: WW320 finally moved after holding flat all year, and the premium grade spread stopped widening for the first time in 2026. Both matter for how you plan Q4 and Q1.
📊 Nine months of data
Where Prices Have Actually Moved In 2026
Cashew kernel FOB Ho Chi Minh — January to September 2026
USD per kilogram · SVC published weekly pricing, monthly representative figures
WW180 — large kernel premium
WW240 — premium whole
WW320 — benchmark grade
Source: SVC Group weekly FOB publications, January–September 2026
The shape of this chart is the story of 2026. WW180 and WW240 have climbed almost every month since March. WW320 — the benchmark, the highest-volume traded grade — spent eight months essentially flat, drifting between $7.00 and $7.20 without direction.
In September, WW320 moved to $7.25, its highest level since April. After a year of resisting the upward pressure affecting every other whole-kernel grade, the benchmark is finally responding.
📉 The spread
The Premium Gap Stopped Widening — First Time This Year
WW240 minus WW320 spread — monthly, 2026
USD per kilogram · the gap between premium and benchmark grades
Source: SVC Group weekly FOB publications, January–September 2026
Through the first seven months of 2026, the gap between WW240 and WW320 widened relentlessly — from 35 cents in January to 90 cents in July. That divergence was the clearest signal in the market: premium retail and gifting demand growing faster than bulk demand.
In August the spread came in slightly to 85 cents. In September it held at 85 cents. Two consecutive months without widening is the first pause in that trend all year.
Read carefully: the spread has stopped widening, but it has not meaningfully narrowed. This is a plateau, not a reversal. Premium grades remain historically expensive relative to the benchmark — the gap simply stopped growing.
🔍 Interpretation
What The Plateau Actually Means
📈
WW320 Catching Up, Not WW240 Falling
The spread narrowed because the benchmark rose, not because premium grades softened. WW240 continued climbing in both months. This is broad market tightening reaching the bulk grade at last
🌿
Lean Season Finally Biting Everywhere
After three months of the July–October lean window, raw material tightness is affecting all grades rather than concentrating in large-kernel supply. Processors have less room to hold WW320 flat
📦
Q4 Demand Fully Committed
Delivery windows have pushed to October. Production capacity for the peak season is largely booked, which removes the competitive pressure that had been keeping benchmark pricing soft
🎯
Grade Arithmetic Is Steadier Now
For product developers deciding between WW320 and WW240, a stable 85-cent gap is easier to plan around than one moving 10 cents a month. Model your economics on this rather than on H1 numbers
📆 Supply calendar
Where September Sits In The Annual Cycle
Côte d'Ivoire
Cambodia
Vietnam domestic
Tanzania
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Harvest / arrivals
Lean period
September sits in the final stretch of the lean window. Tanzania's counter-seasonal harvest is beginning, which provides some relief, but not at the volume needed to change the overall picture. Meaningful supply improvement arrives with the next main harvest from February 2027.
Processing flow at SVC's Dong Nai facility — QC checkpoints hold at every stage regardless of volume
👁 What to watch
Four Signals Through October
Does WW320 hold above $7.20? September's move is the first meaningful break from the year-long range. Holding it through October would confirm the benchmark has genuinely repriced rather than briefly spiked
Does the spread stay at 85 cents, or resume widening? Three consecutive flat months would suggest premium demand has found its ceiling. Renewed widening would mean the pause was temporary
Early West African crop commentary from October: First field assessments for the 2027 harvest begin circulating. These are the earliest forward-looking input available and directly shape Q1 pricing expectations
Delivery windows moving into November: Would signal capacity fully committed through year end, and effectively close the door on any remaining Q4 spot buying
For buyers not yet covered for Q4: October delivery windows mean product arriving at destination in November at the earliest. That is workable for late-season promotions but not for early Q4 shelf placement.
🎯 Planning ahead
Why September Is The Month To Start Q1 2027 Conversations
The most useful thing a buyer can do this month has nothing to do with Q4. It is to begin planning Q1 2027.
Timing
What it gives you
Start development now (Sep–Oct)
Sampling and approval complete before the year end rush; contracting during peak harvest availability in Q1
Start in December
Development runs into the Tet holiday period; contracting under time pressure
Start in February
Competing for capacity with every other buyer who also waited; weakest negotiating position of the cycle
The pattern from our own data is consistent: the buyers who contract during peak harvest availability get better terms than those who contract during scarcity. The window for that in 2027 opens as the new crop arrives from February — but the product development that has to happen first should start now.
💬 CEO Perspective
💬 CEO Perspective
The interesting number this month is not the price of any single grade — it is that WW320 finally moved. That grade held flat through eight months of pressure on everything around it. When the benchmark repositions, it usually means the market has shifted underneath rather than at the margins. We are watching October closely to see whether it holds.
— 𝐂𝐄𝐎, 𝐒𝐕𝐂 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐉𝐒𝐂
📊
Get Weekly Pricing Direct From SVC
SVC publishes FOB pricing across all grades every week. Request a formal quotation for your volume, or start a Q1 2027 conversation now.
