📊 Market Intelligence · Quarterly Anchor
📅 31 August 2026 ·
🕐 9 min read ·
📍 SVC Group, Vietnam
Q3
Quarter under review
Jul–Sep 2026
+$0.90
WW240–WW320 spread
Widened from $0.35 in Jan
Jul–Oct
Lean season in effect
Through the full quarter
Q4
What comes next
Peak delivery season
Q3 2026 is the quarter where the trends that emerged in H1 either confirmed or reversed. With two of the three months now complete and September's shape becoming visible, this review assesses what has actually changed since the H1 review published on 1 July — and what it means for Q4 planning.
✅ Confirmed
What H1 Predicted Correctly
📈
Large-Kernel Firming Continued
The H1 review flagged WW240 and WW180 as showing sustained upward pressure. Both continued climbing through Q3 without a single month of decline — WW240 moving from $7.75 in June to the $7.90–8.10 range in August
📊
WW320 Held Its Range
The benchmark grade behaved as forecast — stable, with modest firming rather than a breakout. The $7.00–7.50 H1 range has held broadly intact through the lean season
📦
Delivery Windows Extended
July bookings were quoting August shipment; by late August, September had become the standard window. The forward-buying pattern the H1 review identified played out as expected
🌿
RCN Cost Pressure Persisted
No meaningful relief in raw material costs through Q3. The margin compression identified in H1 remains the defining structural condition of the industry going into Q4
🔍 The defining trend
The Grade Spread Is The Story Of 2026
If Q3 2026 is remembered for one thing, it will be the decoupling of premium and bulk grades.
| Period | WW320 | WW240 | Spread |
|---|
| January 2026 | $7.10 | $7.45 | +$0.35 |
| April 2026 | $7.20 | $7.55 | +$0.35 |
| June 2026 | $7.05 | $7.75 | +$0.70 |
| August 2026 | $7.00–7.30 | $7.90–8.10 | +$0.90 |
A spread that has widened from $0.35 to roughly $0.90 in eight months is not noise. It reflects a durable shift in where demand is concentrated: premium retail, gifting, and food service formats requiring large whole kernels are growing faster than the bulk and ingredient segments that consume WW320.
For product developers, this changes the arithmetic of grade selection. WW240 at a $0.35 premium and WW240 at a $0.90 premium are different commercial decisions. Any grade choice made on H1 assumptions should be re-examined against current spread.
What To Expect Through Q4 2026
Lean season effects continue into October: The July–October window has one more month to run. Meaningful supply relief is unlikely before the next main harvest cycle begins
Peak delivery demand September through November: European Christmas retail and Chinese year-end consumption both concentrate in this window — capacity, not just price, becomes the binding constraint
WW320 may finally test $7.50: The benchmark has resisted upward movement all year. If Q4 demand is strong enough to move it, that would be the clearest signal yet of broad market tightening
Early crop signals arrive from October: Field assessments for the next West African harvest begin circulating. These shape Q1 2027 expectations and are the first meaningful forward-looking input since mid-year
Watch the spread for a turn: If the WW240–WW320 spread narrows for two consecutive months, it would be the first indication that premium-grade demand is cooling. It has not happened once in 2026
🎯 For buyers
Three Practical Takeaways Going Into Q4
Action points
Re-run grade economics against the current spread, not H1 assumptions — the $0.90 gap changes several product decisions
If Q4 volume is not yet secured, treat capacity availability as the constraint rather than price alone
Begin Q1 2027 planning now — the Q2 booking window during peak harvest availability is consistently the most favourable of the year
💬 CEO Perspective
💬 CEO Perspective
Two months ago we published our H1 review and set out what we expected from H2. Most of it has played out. The one development we would flag as more significant than anticipated is how far the premium grade spread has widened — that is a structural shift in demand, not a seasonal one, and it will still be relevant in 2027.
— 𝐂𝐄𝐎, 𝐒𝐕𝐂 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐉𝐒𝐂
📊
Planning Q4 Or Q1 2027?
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