As of mid-Q2 2025, Vietnam’s cashew industry is facing a delicate pricing balance. With new crop arrivals, changing global demand, and geopolitical shifts, the question arises: Will cashew kernel prices stabilize or continue to fluctuate?
📊 Current Market Snapshot
- FOB prices for WW320 range from USD 7.20–7.40/kg, depending on origin and certification
- WW240 hovers around USD 7.70/kg
- Lower grades like LP and SP are priced between USD 2.80–4.30/kg
- Prices are based on AFI Standard quality, packed 22.68kg PE/carton
Prices have risen slightly compared to Q1, driven by reduced supply from Africa and strong short-term demand from China and the U.S.
🌍 Global Influences
- U.S. Tariff Impact: The 46% tariff on some Vietnamese exporters has caused a reshuffle in trade flows and pricing structure
- EU and Middle East Demand: Stable and growing, especially for value-added products
- Africa Supply Uncertainty: Erratic harvests in West Africa create pressure on global kernel availability
🔁 Factors Supporting Price Stability
- Steady demand from core markets (EU, China, Middle East)
- Improved crop quality in Vietnam this season
- Buyers securing stock early to avoid future logistics volatility
⚠️ Factors Driving Volatility
- Tariff disruptions and non-transparent customs treatment (esp. U.S. market)
- Rising freight costs and container shortages
- Currency fluctuations and speculative buying behavior
🏭 SVC’s Insight
As a supplier to over 43 countries, SVC monitors daily shifts in buyer sentiment and shipment feasibility. In May 2025, SVC:
- Offers weekly updated price sheets
- Adapts offers based on certification, origin & packaging
- Prioritizes consistency & transparency to help buyers make informed decisions in an unpredictable market
🔮 Outlook
While short-term price increases may continue through Q2 due to raw material tightness, the long-term outlook depends on:
- Africa’s harvest completion
- Clarity on U.S. tariff enforcement
- Freight normalization
Buyers are advised to act early, secure certified stock, and negotiate flexible terms with trusted exporters.
SVC INTERNATIONAL JSC
Email: thanh@svc.vn
Phone: 0909432477
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Daily Cashew Price Updates : Click here