📈 Market Intelligence · Freshness Update
📅 03 August 2026 ·
🕐 7 min read ·
📍 SVC Group, Vietnam
$7.00
WW320 FOB HCMC
Held from July
$7.90
WW240 FOB HCMC
Above H1 ceiling
JulโOct
Global lean season
Lowest RCN availability
Sep
Delivery window now
Pushed out from August
August marks the deepest point of the global raw cashew nut lean season. Harvest activity across all major origins is at its annual minimum, delivery windows have pushed from August into September, and buyers who have not yet secured Q4 coverage are entering the least favourable part of the calendar to be negotiating.
This update covers where prices sit at the start of August, what the lean season means structurally, and what buyers should be doing over the next four weeks.
The lean season is not a market disruption. It is a predictable annual cycle that repeats every year between July and October. What varies is how well-prepared each buyer is when it arrives.
Where Grades Stand At The Start Of August
| Grade | FOB HCMC | Vs July | Read |
|---|
| WW180 | $9.60–9.80/kg | ↑ Firming | Large-kernel scarcity remains the tightest constraint in the grade structure |
| WW240 | $7.90–8.10/kg | ↑ Continuing climb | Fifth consecutive month of increases — premium retail demand sustained |
| WW320 | $7.00–7.30/kg | ↔ Stable to firm | Benchmark grade holding; bulk buyers still price-resistant |
| DW320 | $5.10–5.35/kg | ↔ Stable | Broken grade tracking whole-kernel movement at a discount |
| SK / LP | $4.20–5.10/kg | ↔ Stable | Ingredient grades largely unaffected by premium-grade tightness |
🌿 Supply picture
Three Supply Factors Defining August
📆
Lean Season At Its Deepest
Global RCN supply concentrates between November and June. July to October is the structural low point, with limited harvest activity across all major origins simultaneously
📦
Delivery Windows Now September
Booking lead times have extended from the August windows quoted in July. Buyers securing new contracts now are looking at September shipment at the earliest
🌍
Cambodia Supply Seasonally Reduced
Vietnam's most reliable RCN origin harvests primarily February to June. August draws on stored inventory rather than fresh arrivals, tightening processor input flexibility
🎉
Q4 Demand Building Ahead
European peak deliveries typically run September to November. Buyers covering that window are competing for the same production slots during the tightest supply period of the year
The combination that defines August every year: lowest raw material availability meeting rising forward demand for Q4. This is why the July–October window is historically the annual price peak — it is a structural feature of the crop calendar, not a market anomaly.
Signals Over The Next Four Weeks
WW320 breaking above $7.50: Would confirm the benchmark grade is finally joining the upward movement that WW240 and WW180 have shown since May
Delivery windows moving into October: A further extension would signal capacity is fully committed through Q4 — the point at which spot buyers pay meaningful premiums
The WW240–WW320 spread: Currently near $0.90. Continued widening confirms premium demand strength; narrowing would be the first sign of cooling
Early West African crop commentary: Field assessments for the next harvest begin circulating from October. Early signals shape Q1 2027 pricing expectations
💬 CEO Perspective
💬 CEO Perspective
August is the month where the difference between planned buyers and reactive buyers becomes visible. Nothing about the lean season is a surprise โ it happens every year on roughly the same schedule. The buyers who treat it as an annual planning input rather than an annual inconvenience consistently get better terms.
— ๐๐๐, ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐
📊
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