📅 02 September 2026 ·
🕐 7 min read ·
📍 SVC Group, Vietnam ·
🔄 Updated monthly
Peak Q4 delivery season — containers moving through Cat Lai and Cai Mep
$7.00
WW320 FOB HCMC
↔ Unchanged since July
$7.90
WW240 FOB HCMC
↔ Unchanged since July
+$0.10
DW320, SK and LP
↑ The only movers
Late Sep
Current delivery window
Into early October
Eight weeks separate SVC's 13 July and 4 September price publications. Across those eight weeks, at the deepest point of the annual lean season, something unusual happened.
Every whole kernel grade held completely flat. WW180, WW240 and WW320 finished September at exactly the same level they held in mid-July. Not a cent of movement in either direction.
Meanwhile, every broken and piece grade rose — by exactly ten cents each. DW320, SK and LP all moved up together while the grades most buyers actually watch did nothing at all.
Three whole grades flat. Three broken grades up ten cents each. That is not random noise — it is a clean signal about where demand is actually shifting.
📊 The data
Eight Weeks, Six Grades, One Clear Pattern
SVC FOB Ho Chi Minh — 13 July vs 4 September 2026
USD per kilogram · AFI standards · 22.68 kg PE per carton
13 July 2026
4 September 2026 — whole kernel
4 September 2026 — broken / piece
Source: SVC Group published FOB pricing, 13 July and 4 September 2026
Grade
13 July
4 September
Change
WW180
$9.60/kg
$9.60/kg
↔ Unchanged
WW240
$7.90/kg
$7.90/kg
↔ Unchanged
WW320
$7.00/kg
$7.00/kg
↔ Unchanged
DW320
$5.10/kg
$5.20/kg
↑ +$0.10
LP
$5.00/kg
$5.10/kg
↑ +$0.10
SK
$4.20/kg
$4.30/kg
↑ +$0.10
📉 What narrowed
The Discount For Buying Broken Just Got Smaller
Because whole grades held while broken grades rose, the gap between them narrowed across the board — by exactly ten cents on every pairing.
Discount to WW320 — how much you save buying broken instead of whole
USD per kilogram below WW320 · a smaller bar means a smaller cost advantage
13 July discount
4 September discount
Source: SVC Group published FOB pricing, 13 July and 4 September 2026
For a buyer using DW320 in snack bars, or SK in bakery inclusions, the cost advantage over whole kernel has shrunk by ten cents a kilogram. On a 20-tonne container that is $2,000 — not dramatic, but it is movement in the wrong direction for ingredient buyers, and it is the only movement in the market right now.
🔍 Interpretation
Three Readings Of A Flat Whole-Kernel Market
⚖️
Whole Kernel Found Its Level
Eight weeks without movement, through the tightest supply period of the year, suggests buyers and processors have converged on a price both sides accept. Flat during lean season is itself a form of strength
🦽
Ingredient Demand Is Firming
Broken and piece grades feed snack bars, bakery, granola and industrial applications. All three rising together while retail grades hold points to strengthening demand in the ingredient segment specifically
📦
Or Broken Supply Is Tightening
The alternative reading: processors optimising for whole kernel recovery produce proportionally less broken material. Less supply of DW320, SK and LP would firm those prices independently of demand
📈
Delivery Queue Lengthened
July bookings quoted August shipment. September bookings quote end September into early October. Capacity is committed further out even though price has not moved — a quiet signal worth noting
Both readings on broken grades point the same direction for ingredient buyers: the cost advantage of broken over whole is compressing. If your product economics were modelled on a $1.90 or $2.80 discount, re-check them against the current numbers.
📆 Supply calendar
Where September Sits In The Annual Cycle
Côte d'Ivoire
Cambodia
Vietnam domestic
Tanzania
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Harvest / arrivals
Lean period
September sits in the final stretch of the lean window. Tanzania's counter-seasonal harvest is beginning, which helps at the margin without changing the overall picture. Meaningful supply improvement arrives with the next main harvest from February 2027.
Processing flow at SVC's Dong Nai facility — QC checkpoints hold at every stage regardless of volume
👁 What to watch
Four Signals Through October
Do broken grades keep climbing? A second consecutive ten-cent move on DW320, SK and LP would confirm this is a trend in ingredient demand rather than a one-off adjustment
Does the whole-kernel freeze break? Eight weeks flat is unusual. Whichever direction WW320 moves first will indicate whether the equilibrium was a floor or a ceiling
Delivery windows moving into November: Currently late September into early October. Further extension would close the door on remaining Q4 spot buying
Early West African crop commentary from October: First field assessments for the 2027 harvest begin circulating and directly shape Q1 pricing expectations
🎯 Planning ahead
Why A Flat Market Is A Good Time To Talk About Q1 2027
A market that has not moved in eight weeks is a market where a conversation can happen without pressure on either side. That is a better environment for agreeing terms than a rising one.
Timing
What it gives you
Start development now (Sep–Oct)
Sampling and approval complete before year end; contracting as the new crop arrives from February
Start in December
Development runs into the Tet holiday period; contracting under time pressure
Start in February
Competing for capacity with every buyer who also waited; weakest position of the cycle
💬 CEO Perspective
💬 CEO Perspective
Eight weeks without a single cent of movement on our three main grades is not something we see often, and we would rather report it plainly than manufacture a story around it. The interesting detail is the broken grades — all three moving together, by the same amount, while everything else sat still. That is where we are paying attention this month.
— 𝐂𝐄𝐎, 𝐒𝐕𝐂 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐉𝐒𝐂
📊
Get Weekly Pricing Direct From SVC
SVC publishes FOB pricing every week. More grades are available on request — call or email for grades not listed here, or to start a Q1 2027 conversation.
