📈 Market Intelligence · Freshness Update
📅 13 July 2026 ·
🕐 6 min read ·
📍 SVC Group, Vietnam
· 🔄 Updated weekly
$7.00
WW320 FOB HCMC
At top of H1 range
$9.60
WW180 FOB HCMC
Confirms H2 firming
Aug
Current delivery window
4–5 weeks lead time
6
Grades tracked this week
WW180 to LP
Two weeks into H2 2026, the price signals from SVC’s weekly FOB update are consistent with what the H1 2026 Review flagged as the most likely path: WW320 sitting at the top of its H1 range, WW180 holding firm above $9.50, and delivery windows already pushing into August. This update covers this week’s pricing, what is driving it, and what buyers currently sourcing for Q3–Q4 should be watching.
📈 This week’s pricing
SVC FOB Ho Chi Minh — 13 July 2026
WW180
9.60 USD/kg
↔ Holding at H1 ceiling
WW240
7.90 USD/kg
↑ Above H1 range top ($7.80)
WW320
7.00 USD/kg
↔ At H1 range floor
DW320
5.10 USD/kg
↔ Stable discount grade
SK
4.20 USD/kg
↔ Broken grade, stable
LP
5.00 USD/kg
↔ Split grade, stable
Reading this week against the H1 range that SVC's H1 2026 Review established: WW320 at $7.00 sits at the floor of the $7.00–7.50 H1 range — not yet showing the Q4 firming forecast, but consistent with a market holding its line rather than softening. WW240 at $7.90 has moved above the H1 range ceiling of $7.80, the first grade this month to break into new territory. WW180 at $9.60 continues to hold at the top of its H1 band, confirming that large-kernel supply remains the tightest constraint in the entire grade structure.
🔍 What's driving this week's market
Three Factors Behind This Week's Pricing
🌿
RCN Costs Remain The Ceiling
Raw cashew nut import costs have not eased since H1. With RCN import value up sharply against roughly flat volume growth through 2025 into H1 2026, processors continue running at high utilisation just to protect margin — leaving little room to discount finished kernel prices even as buyers look for Q3 deals.
📦
Delivery Windows Are Already In August
Current bookings are running 4–5 weeks out. This is earlier in the year than typical August-window bookings would suggest — an early signal that Q3 forward buying has started, ahead of the September rush that historically pushes prices up further.
🏷️
Premium Grades Diverging From WW320
WW240 breaking above its H1 ceiling while WW320 holds at the floor shows grade-level divergence. Retail and private label buyers competing for WW240 and WW180 supply are willing to pay up, while bulk WW320 buyers are more price-resistant — a pattern typical of markets entering peak season demand.
🌍
Competing Nut Prices Support Cashew Demand
Pistachio crops are reported tighter and Brazil nut supply remains restricted this year. As alternative tree nuts face their own supply constraints, cashew demand benefits at the margin — snack manufacturers and retailers have fewer cheaper substitution options than in prior years.
👁 What buyers should watch
Signals To Track Over The Next Two To Four Weeks
WW320 breaking above $7.50: Would confirm the H2 firming forecast is arriving ahead of the Q4 schedule originally expected. Watch weekly SVC updates for this signal specifically
Delivery windows moving past September: If booking lead times extend further, it signals capacity tightening ahead of Christmas-season demand — the point at which forward buyers historically pay a premium for guaranteed slots
Cambodia RCN flow through July–August: As the seasonally expected slowdown in Cambodian supply continues into Q3, any earlier-than-usual tightening would pressure processor input costs further
WW180 approaching $10.00: Would represent a genuine breakout above the entire H1 trading range and confirm large-kernel scarcity is the dominant story of H2
China buying pace into Q3: As the primary demand anchor, any slowdown in Chinese purchasing would be the most likely source of downward price pressure across all grades
For buyers still finalising Q4 private label or OEM programs: current August delivery windows leave a narrowing runway. Programs that have not started sampling by now should treat this as the final call to begin — see SVC's OEM process guide for exact lead times.
💬 CEO Perspective
Every week we publish this update, we are giving buyers the same information we use internally to plan our own sourcing and production. There is no reason for that information to be a black box. The buyers who watch these numbers closely, week over week, are the ones who lock in the right contract at the right time — not the ones scrambling in September.
— 𝐂𝐄𝐎, 𝐒𝐕𝐂 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐉𝐒𝐂
🏭
Get This Update Weekly
SVC publishes FOB pricing every week. Join our WhatsApp update group or contact us directly for grade-specific quotes and delivery windows.
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